It actually began last year, when there were serious signs that Blacks were not preparing to show up for several important elections.
It actually began last year, when there were serious signs that Blacks were not preparing to show up for several important elections. The gubernatorial elections of John Corzine, the incumbent Democrat of New Jersey and Creigh Deeds, the Democrat of Virginia contesting for an open seat. Both of the states have sizeable Black populations with Virginia at 20 percent and New Jersey at 14 percent, yet both candidates lost – though not just due to the Black vote.
Now, in 2010, another series of important elections are coming up and the issue of whether Blacks will turnout is still in the air. There is the election of Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, who changed his affiliation from Republican to Democrat to draw support from the popular Obama. He will surely need Blacks in Philadelphia to turn out because the city has a substantial impact of statewide elections contributing about 600,000 votes to the process. Blacks who make nearly half of the city population at (45 percent) are crucial, but voted 70 percent against Specter when he was a Republican, but he squeaked out a statewide victory in any case.
Now the issue is whether he can be trusted and whether that question is a deterrent to many showing up at the polls, even though President Obama campaigned in the State and in the City for Specter. In fact, some are viewing this as a referendum on Obama’s political power right now. Turnout for Specter could be helped by the candidacy of African American State Senator Tony Williams for Governor, but he is running behind opponent Dan Onorato at this writing.
Then, there are primaries featuring high-profile Black candidates: Kendrick Meeks of Florida for U.S. Senate and Artur Davis of Alabama for governor, both members of the Congressional Black Caucus. Meeks is running ahead of his opponents former Miami Mayor Maurice Ferre and former North Miami Mayor Kevin Burns and has $3.5 million in the bank, but the theater around sitting Republican Governor Charlie Christ who will run as an independent creates a three-way race and polls now have Marco Rubio, Tea Party darling, leading both.
Again, the Black vote is crucial to Meeks chances but he hasalso campaigned in Latino, military, Haitian and other districts just as forcefully.
Artur Davis is also leading his rival Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks, but his decision to reject the Black vote and to vote against President Obama’s health care bill, in his quest for Governor, has angered the largest Black political organizations, Alabama New South Coalition headed by the influential Hank Sanders and the Alabama Democratic Conference headed by Joe Reed a powerful actor who also heads the Alabama Education Association.
While this has led them to endorse Davis’ primary opponent Sparks, Davis has picked up endorsement from groups like the Alabama Citizens for Constitutional Reform as well as his CBC colleagues such as Jesse Jackson, Jr. and John Lewis.
Otherwise, in North Carolina Democratic establishment candidate Cal Cunningham, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall and African-American attorney Ken Lewis are running for the Senate. But while Lewis, who is running behind in third place, has been endorsed by the two members of the CBC, G. K. Butterfield and Mel Watt and other Black officials, the Charlotte Black Political Caucus has endorsed Marshall. Here again, the Black vote, apparently split, could make the difference. In Georgia, African-American Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond has decided to run for the Senate against Republican Johnny Isaacson. And although polls are showing him running behind Isaacson 52-31 percent, he faces little opposition in the Primary and his campaign hopes that his recent entry could eventually change the numbers. Down the road in Savannah, Georgia, Regina Thomas, former state senator, will take on John Barrow again. Barrow, who is white, represents a 45 percent Black district, but he is a leading member of the Blue Dog conservatives Democrats in the House. Turnout, however, in her last bout with Barrow was inexplicably low at 24 percent, if it does not improve, the result will likely be the same.
Much has been made of the fact that a legacy of the Obama victory is that 32 Black Republicans are running for the House. But this will not be the “year of the Black Republican” because 80 percent of them are running against opponents who have a margin of victory on their last election of 55 percent or more and one-third of them are running against comfortable members of the CBC. The Congressional Quarterly says that only four or five could make a reasonable showing at the primary and general election level. Most also face districts that are heavily minority where Republican candidate do poorly, so if blacks don’t turnout they could create the conditions under which lightening could strike and a few could conservatives could win. Dr. Ron Walters is an author and Political Analyst and Professor Emeritus of the University of Maryland College Park.
Copyright 2010 Chicago Defender.
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